Despite a slight dip in support, the Progressive Conservatives maintain a commanding lead in Ontario’s election race, according to a recent Ipsos Global Public Affairs poll for Global News. If the vote were held tomorrow, Doug Ford’s PC party would capture 46 per cent of the support, leaving Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals at 25 per cent, Marit Stiles and the NDP at 21 per cent, and Mike Schreiner’s Green Party trailing with 8 per cent.

The poll indicates modest changes from earlier in the campaign. The PCs have lost four percentage points, while the Greens have gained two. Both the Liberals and the NDP have inched up by one point. As Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos, put it, “It looks at the moment like Premier Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party are cruising to a third majority government.”

Ford’s popularity remains notably high. He holds a 45 per cent rating as best premier, compared to Crombie at 24 per cent and Stiles at 18 per cent. Meanwhile, Schreiner’s numbers have improved, rising three points to 13 per cent. One might ask: in the midst of a frosty winter campaign, can any party truly capture the electorate’s imagination when they’re bundled up against the cold?

A brief fictional scene comes to mind—a commuter on a packed, snowbound bus glances at the headlines, shivering yet intrigued, and muses, “Perhaps my vote is as certain as the snowfall today.” Such moments echo the subtle blend of apathy and determination that defines this election season, as Ontario’s winter campaign struggles to seize the public’s full attention.

In this evolving political landscape, the numbers suggest that while support for the PCs has seen a minor decline, their lead remains robust. With every percentage point carrying weight, Ontario’s final week of campaigning promises to be as unpredictable as the winter weather itself.